possible vs probable vs plausible

If the networking effect is strong enough, it can Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Print Potential exists for an entire structure to be destroyed by a peril (fire, wind, water, etc); thus the maximum possible loss is the value of the entire structure and all the contents. Likely but uncertain.Possible: capable of happening, existing, or being true without without contradictive facts, laws, or circumstances. China's Tech Crackdown: Its about Control, not Consumers or Competition! So the questions will be; would many people be willing to take up a job as Uber driver as opposed to other jobs that they are currently doing? Plausible refers to something that is reasonable or valid. likely but not certain to be or become true or real; 'a likely result'; 'he foresaw a probable loss'; Possible adjective. 100% Upvoted. Full of practical advice, examples and real-life insights from organizational development professionals at the leading edge of digital transformation, this book is an essential guide to building an agile business. "Yes, but how horrible would it be if it does happen?". No, or at least not yet, and there are three reasons why. Possible = anything that could conceivably happen without violating the laws of nature. A partial, beginning strategy may be when you know something for sure, you should ask, “I wonder if this is true?” Wonder is a feeling of doubt. Found inside – Page 46IPossible" in this context is not vraisemblable, namely, probable or plausible, for probability or plausibility inescapably depends on actual reality and actualities, whereas, as a pure possibility, Gregor Samsa is entirely independent ... Likely but uncertain. "Now that the author discusses about economies because there will be many Uber drivers and as a result their clout will be higher than anyone else. There are global networking advantages listed, such as stored data that can be accessed by users in a new city and partnerships with credit car, smartphone and car companies, but they seem much weaker. So priceline's value proposition is similar...hospitality is ~$1tr market. Dining out is maybe $500bn?. Possible vs Plausible vs Probable. Although a lot of people have always believed things that aren’t so, it seems clear there is so much more opportunity to do so today. Possible noun. This blog presents information related to African Science, Math, Engineering, and Technology. F&I Tips is a weekly informational video series brought to you by American Financial & Automotive Services, Inc.'s F&I University (FIU). Daniel J. Levitin. ( Log Out /  6 Responses to "Probable vs. Possible" Marion on June 04, 2012 1:18 pm. Le possible et le probable relèvent tous deux du faisable, mais le probable est plus avancé que le possible en terme de faisabilité. The first is that as an investor and insider, he has access to information on Uber's experiences and experiments in its frontier markets (mass transit and suburban users), that may have led him to shift these markets from the plausible to the probable. Each of these futures is incomplete in its own right and each of these futures constantly modify and impact each other, creating multiple new possible futures. I think there is a significant assumption in both valuations that is highly likely to be incorrect: 20% revenue shareThis has been the case in the low-hanging fruit markets, but is already under pressure in the case of UberX and will be increasingly so due to competition as the amount of money into the sector increases and the built-in phone APIs for always on geolocation expand into new versions of Android, iOS etc.This also holds for expansion into additional verticals, particularly logistics and so on.Indeed, Bill Gurley alluded to this in March, when he stated:"The bottom line is that this (Uber) is a low margin business — much more akin to Amazon than Google. Something is plausible if it's credible or can be believed. Plausible: seemingly or apparently valid, likely, or acceptable. I think Levitin explains the problem today clearly: The unique problem we face today is that misinformation has proliferated; it is devilishly entwined on the Internet with real information, making the two difficult to separate. Uber gives users 'free rides' for each friend they are able to refer to the app. The speed with which Uber can create local network effects in different geographies will be key. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. The Gurley narrative for Uber makes a good case that the convenience and economics of Uber will expand the car service market initially to include light users and non-users (suburban users, rental car users, aged parents and young children), but it does have three key barriers it has to overcome: Not everything that is possible is plausible, and not all plausible opportunities make the transition to the probable. Probable means that whatever is under consideration is likely to happen or be accomplished. hi Profyou wrote once i think that you do valuation of AMZN in every yeardo you have a late one, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2014/07/28/the-bear-case-for-uber/. The exact definitions can be hard to find but here they are all in one place, referenced from NI 43-101 and the JORC code. ( Log Out /  A little while later, I started getting messages from those who had read, Does that mean that I am abandoning my narrative and the valuation that goes with it? ( Log Out /  Proven does. Found inside – Page 127... (see Chapter 7 for a more detailed analysis): a) The possibility of improving Y's performance, or of intervening ... Not-P. P is probable 55% but possible and plausible (not against evidence) up to the 85%! While Not-P is probable ... Interest Rates, Earning Growth and Equity Value: Investment Implications. Found insideSince it is conceptually possible that a plausible argument is either true or false, the Stoics responded by describing ... For the Loeb Classical Library, R.D. Hicks translated πιθανόν as probable rather than plausible (Laërtius, 225a, ... "Can you guarantee this is safe?". Therefore, as always with such things, there's confusion regarding the meaning and the usage of the words. Giving a deceptive  impression of truth. Close. Every trader should know these markets and the networking effects and make there strategies according to it. Found inside – Page 241Such two - stage conversions are plausible . Jewish practices would represent an innovation for such converts . It is also possible that Judaizers were once associated with Judaism as God - fearers or as proselytes , but have now become ... is possible that I am unaware of a management initiative designed to do exactly I did not do it myself and could understand your big-pitcture story but just curious, when the risk can somewhat be modelled in the top line and it is material per se, shall we still put that in the discount factor instead?The reason why I raised this is Uber is facing fierce competition and devastating legal constraints in China, which almost lead to a different business model. You Can Believe This History of plausible to a  ‘winner take all’ scenario. Probable vs. Possible: does it matter? I think there is a significant assumption in both valuations that is highly likely to be incorrect: 20% revenue share, I do not know Bill Gurley personally, but I do know of him, and I was surprised, sitting in Vienna airport waiting for a connection home on Friday morning, to get an email from him. A possible choice, notably someone being considered for a position. The first is that Uber is pursuing a much larger market than just taxi service and that it may very well redefine the nature of car ownership. Adjective (en adjective) Likely or most likely to be true. If you add probable and likely in the equation, you can order theses adjectives by ascending probability as follows: possible => plausible => probable = likely. Its always fun to have many girl friends( many car services which give the best ride at cheapest price), but one is most likely committed to ones wife. It can also cut into Uber's revenue slice very quickly, a point also made by Emad. And yet I believe you fail to mention Uber's driving (no pun intended) networking effect: their robust referral program. Doubt and uncertainty are not common feelings by most believers, certainty is. if it is higher salaries that will draw more people to become Uber drivers, wouldn’t the cost structure impact the Uber’s margins?What are your thoughts on this? futures in mind, probable, preferable, plausible and possible, and even some preposterous! Investment Advice from the Federal Reserve: Unusua... Possible, Plausible and Probable: Big markets and ... Like anyone else, I like being right, but I am far more interested in understanding Uber's valuation, and the post provided the vantage point of someone who not only is invested in the company but knows far more about it than I do. 6 Responses to "Probable vs. Possible" Marion on June 04, 2012 1:18 pm. Found inside – Page xiThe event must be definitive pharmacologically or phenomenologically, using a satisfactory rechallenge procedure if necessary. Probable/Likely: A clinical event, including laboratory test abnormality, with a reasonable time sequence to ... Sort by: new (suggested) View discussions in 1 other community. I'll add "probable" into the mix and also say that I think "plausible" has an element of believability associated with it. Possible noun. This again is something that Bill Gurley has written about in point 6 here, Growing becomes a grind:http://abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the-dangerous-seduction-of-the-lifetime-value-ltv-formula/I think Amazon shows that capital markets are paying for "category killers", but when I think of the world 5-10 years out, I see horrendous competition in the Uber area, with the likely winner being the one who gets largest frictionless penetration onto homescreens and/or some sort of real-life identity linkage that people actually care about (so they don't abuse the platform), something I'm working on now with my company.I think growth will continue to be good and the investors in the latest round will make a good return into IPO, but I think your take is nearer for a longer-term "value" calculation. Each of these futures is incomplete in its own right and each of these futures constantly modify and impact each other, creating multiple new possible futures. (because from where I come, no one wants to be a driver and takes pride in being a driver. There have been several documented cases of various non-flying things falling from the sky. These rides range anywhere from $10 to $30 depending on the current promo (a large spend category of their funding as drivers are still compensated so cost to Uber is $8 to $24), this currently stands at $30 for each friend referred.To me this is the ultimate driver of global virality, because as an Uber user in New York I can (and, in fact, am handsomely rewarded for) referring my friends around the globe of the app and it's benefits.It is for this reason that I am inclined to say that your proposed market share of 10% is on the low side. Probable noun. But, before we discuss the first of three layers, we have to discuss what the sand represents. Found inside – Page 9Only the set of structures and pathways that obeys the conservation laws is considered possible and all others are ruled ... that cause transitions between structures to decide whether a pathway is possible , plausible , or probable . Found inside – Page 188A variety of “weighting” maneuvers is then applied to reduce the possible diagnosis to one, or a few, most probable or plausible diagnoses. Two systems have received considerable attention - MYCIN, which deals with the diagnosis of ... Plausible, something that is reasonable to be believed as true. Plausible adjective. Probable vs. I find I don't have the time or interest to read the parts of these posts that give the etymology of the words, even though I'm sure some readers find this helpful and interesting. ; Likely to happen. I think the core of Uber lends itself to far greater applications than it currently serves.Uber gets things from point A to point B. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. Possible vs Probable . This is something that can happen so it's possible. Apparently valid, likely, plausible. Is this questioning possible? Vote. And we should add: “I never know how much of what I hear and read is true.”. Possible vs Plausible vs Probable. The Benefit of Doubt and the Danger of Dogma, GENUINE IGNORANCE IS POPULAR AND PROFITABLE. And yet I believe you fail to mention Uber's driving (no pun intended) networking effect: their robust referral program.In your last post you mentioned you are not an Uber user, so it may be that you are unaware of this incentive. Tomorrow, Bobbies 9:15 . - I understand this is more of a mindset discussion instead of sell side report:). In the sections below, I hope to stress test these assumptions, more as a friendly observer than antagonist. Third, as Kahnemann notes in. But I doubt that anyone will have the same to say that they work for Uber as a driver!) Found insideAssessment criteria Causality the Certain to • Event or laboratory test abnormality, with plausible time ... if necessary or or Probable/ Likely • Event or laboratory test abnormality, with reasonable time relationship to drug intake ... Possible vs Plausible vs Probable - THE PYRAMID OF TRUTH The purpose of this presentation is to differentiate the various degrees of truth in the meaning of the words Possible, Plausible, and Probable, when used in a Scientific context. I'm goin with AD's estimate for the win. 9 Types of Reason: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkHFcKzldXoPossible = potentially true; Plausible = truth determined by valid logic and reason; Probable =. p > some reference value, such as the probability of some alternative outcome). In short, Possible is what can be true or has the potential of being true. Probable noun. To... the car itself is an integral part of the date, Intraday Commodity Market Recommendations. company in San Francisco, Lyft in Chicago and a yet-to-be-created company has In my first post on Uber, I argued that the revenue slice assumption has a bigger effect on value than the market share. you, as a user of a product or service, benefit from other people using the Possibly getting picked up by a hurricane or tornado. H, liked the blog very much. Found inside – Page 55Everyday speech uses the words " probable , " " likely , " " plausible , " and " credible " in meanings which are not ... Some authors regard it as a purely mathematical theory , others as a kind or branch of logic , and still others as ... Maximum Probable Loss. African Creation Energy is dedicated to the African Scientific, Technological, and Industrial revolution. Found inside – Page 132THE NEU ROPSYCHOLOGY HANDBOOK TABLE 6.1 Criteria for Definite, Probable, and Possible Malingering of Cognitive Impairment Definite Malingering is indicated by the presence of clear and compelling evidence of volitional exaggeration or ... Where did you derive the definitions that you use?Thanks. Possibility means that there is hope. Plausible is truth determined by way of valid logic and reason, and Probable is what is most likely to be true. Professor,You say that, "a networking effect shows up any time you, as a user of a product or service, benefit from other people using the same product and service." "I know it's probably not going to happen, but what if it does?". Possible vs Plausible vs Probable - THE PYRAMID OF... it may or may not be true, (various degrees of certainty), it exists in the “Realm of Possibility”, within the limits of ability or reality, there must not be any contradictory proven facts. futures in mind, probable, preferable, plausible and possible, and even some preposterous! Posted by 6 minutes ago. In other words, I can see why the largest car service provider in New York may Found inside – Page 4741Vath. theol., the doctrine that it is lawful to act in a certain manner only when there is a more probable opinion in favor of such action ... Probabilis causa lltigandi, in Scuts law, plausible ground of action or defense. probabilism ... The Game of Probability revisits the seventeenth and eighteenth-century "probabilistic revolution," providing a history of the relations between mathematical and rhetorical techniques, between the scientific and the aesthetic. For all we know, the Uber Momcar and the Uber Datecar have been already conceived, market tested and are ready to go. Found insideArgues that a manager's central responsibility is to create and implement strategies, challenges popular motivational practices, and shares anecdotes discussing how to enable action-oriented plans for real-world results. Found inside – Page 141TABLE 5.1 Criteria for Definite , Probable , and Possible Malingering of Cognitive Dysfunction Definite Malingering is indicated by the presence of clear and compelling evidence of volitional exaggeration or fabrication of cognitive ... Possible refers to something that exists and may or may not be proven. Capable of existing or occurring, or of being conceived or thought of; able to happen; capable of being done; not contrary to the nature . Found inside – Page 19of the conclusion may be open to one or more other explanations or conclusions , the failure to exclude a single other ... or conclusion - i.e. a guilty consciousness - stand out prominently as a more probable and plausible one . ( Log Out /  Discussion in ' Physical & Life Sciences ' started by TBDude65, Jan 2, 2017 . Priceline bought Opentable for $2.6bn. In fact, if the local networking advantages dominate, this The speed with which Uber can create local network effects in different geographies will be key.With every startup now wanting to be like uber for (insert category) there are a lot of copycats trying to be like uber for (insert local transport market). Plausible definition is - superficially fair, reasonable, or valuable but often specious. Probable: likely to happen or to be true. So making the car ownership a thing of past is a herculean task. Found inside – Page 412Table 9.6 EU expedited reporting requirements - marketed products ( mutual recognition or national authorization ) ... relationship in the sense of it being plausible , conceivable or likely ( but not necessarily highly probable ) . And probably wasn’t in the past. We have created more human-made information in the last five years than in all of human history before them. save. Plausible adjective. Let's start with 'plausible'. The narrative has two key building blocks and I think that there is much to be gained by taking a closer look at them. different players, with different winners in different markets. Plausibleis referred to an explanation, an argument, or a statement, while possibleis referred to a fact, or an event. If so what is the incentive for them to shift? This book is a crash course in effective reasoning, meant to catapult you into a world where you start to see things how they really are, not how you think they are. For the Gurley Uber narrative to hold, the ; Supporting, or giving ground for, belief, but not demonstrating. That being said, Gurley's estimate of 40% is astronomical and undoubtedly reflects the opinion of an optimistic investor rather than a level headed outsider. A person that is likely to appear or do a certain thing. As Mr. Gurley notes, a networking effect shows up any time Even though these words do not share the same roots, they convey an idea very slightly different from each other. hide. I find I don't have the time or interest to read the parts of these posts that give the etymology of the words, even though I'm sure some readers find this helpful and interesting. Suppose you're late for work because you missed the bus. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals. Possible, something that could occur, a syno. July 10, 2008 by Christopher J. Boggs, CPCU, ARM, ALCM. Plausible: Is a proposal that seems like it could be true (verisimilar . Car is never just for a transport, its about your social status and a hall-mark of acheivement and i dont think that will never be changed or is difficult to change. same product and service. Companies like Amazon, Google and Netflix owe their success and immense market values to their capacities to redefine markets (retail, advertising and entertainment respectively) and it is true that in these and other cases, investors and analysts have under estimated these capacities and have paid a price for doing so. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Probable and possible are two commonly used words in the English language. p>0), and "plausible" connotes a relative probability (i.e. Strategic Foresight provides a systematic, generative approach to that complexity and Adjective (en adjective) Likely or most likely to be true. report. Capable of existing or occurring, or of being conceived or thought of; able to happen; capable of being done; not contrary to the nature . Thanks! Inflation and Investing: False Alarm or Fair Warning? the largest market share in London. However, there is one other place that has used the words possible and plausible similarly to your usage, the U.S. Supreme Court. market could very quickly devolve into a city-by-city trench warfare among the Found inside – Page 161Such a notion of the plausible or the probable is parasitic on an account of truth in that we can only say that a ... If the plausible is what is "likely to be the case" or what can be "reasonably assumed to be the case," then any ... How to use plausible in a sentence. Found inside – Page 110The Euromarket liberalisation scenarios represent what is plausible - not necessarily what is either desirable10 (ie normative) or probable (trend based)11. However, plausibility does not preclude the introduction of surprises. Change ). Found inside – Page 7Knowledge of a 'probable' fact is necessarily an inference. On the other hand, probability implies the possibility of reaching a high level of assurance about facts not directly observed. Shapiro describes how these notions, ... Probable = the most likely thing to occur given a set of circumstances Plausible = an event which . If you have good knowledge of market and investing strategy than only you can be a good investor. York, but these advantages will not be of much use in Miami. The main difference between "plausible" and "possible" is that "plausible" means you could make a reasonably valid case for something, while "possible" means something is capable of becoming true, though it's not always reasonable. I think most people find these two words to be completely interchangeable. Found inside – Page 111Conditional valuation functions assign degrees of certainty, plausibility, possibility etc to propositional ... valid or accepted in V, V |= (B|A), iff V(A) = 0A and V(AB)

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