worldwide threat assessment 2021

origin, age, disability, genetic information (including family medical history) and/or reprisal Despite international sanctions, North Korea will continue to modernize and increase the survivability, lethality, and diversification of its missile force, shifting to solid-propellant systems that can be prepared for launch more rapidly than their existing liquid-propellant systems. Guaido’s periodic calls for nationwide marches have failed to draw many participants. China seeks to establish a more robust overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances. Both sides agreed to a UN-brokered cease-fire in October 2020, and on 5 February 2021, the UN-mediated talks resulted in an interim executive authority charged with forming a unity government and conducting elections in December 2021. The Afghan national defense and security forces (ANDSF) face systemic logistical problems and corruption that limit the force’s ability to sustain military operations. For example, the PLA Air Force and PLA Navy conducted provocative transits and military exercises near Taiwan, including entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and deliberately crossing the Taiwan Strait centerline—the median line of the strait that Beijing has generally respected but recently announced does not exist. Apr 13, 2021 In its first publicly available worldwide threat assessment report since 2019, the intelligence community is warning that the United States' adversaries are increasingly using . Following the signature of a peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban in February 2020, violence in Afghanistan remains elevated as talks have stalled. Office of the Intelligence Community Inspector General. These state and nonstate actors not only are developing such capabilities but also are selectively putting them into play globally and regionally. This requires the dedication of more than 240,000 employees in positions that range from aviation and A new heavy ICBM, a transoceanic unmanned torpedo, and an intercontinental cruise missile—all nuclear-armed—may be fielded later this decade. Damascus probably will not resume a major offensive without explicit political and military support from Russia, judging from Damascus’ previous reluctance to directly engage the Turkish military in sustained combat. Throughout 2020, Beijing took several actions to strengthen political control within China and assert its territorial claims around its periphery. Hizballah is watching for threats from the United States and Israel and preparing to respond if needed. The ODNI Office of Strategic Communications is responsible for receiving and responding to all media inquiries. The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment Report supports the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's transparency commitments and the tradition of providing regular threat updates to the American public and the United States Congress. North Korea remains an arms supplier to a small group of countries, including Iran, Syria, and Uganda. under the exemption provisions of these laws. Beijing probably will attempt to portray China as an increasingly powerful, stable, and prosperous state as it celebrates the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Overall emir Ayman al-Zawahiri remains in hiding, while a handful of Iran-based al-Qa’ida leaders oversee al-Qa’ida’s network. In the East China Sea, China named 50 geographic features and continued using maritime law enforcement ships and aircraft to patrol near the Senkaku Islands and challenge Japan’s territorial claim to and administration of the islands. President Vladimir Putin recently highlighted the development of fifth-generation fighters, state-of-the-art air and coastal defense missile systems, space and counterspace capabilities, new surface vessels and submarines, advanced tanks, modernized artillery, and improved military logistics. In Yemen, Iran continues to support the Huthis with weapons and advisers to pressure the Saudi-led coalition and to facilitate increasingly complex and long-range attacks against Saudi Arabia. Hizballah’s primary objectives in Syria are to maintain security along the Lebanon-Syria border, stage for a potential conflict with Israel, and preserve resupply nodes from Iran. North Korea’s cyber program is relatively sophisticated. . The military impasse and ongoing dialogues probably will prevent large-scale conflict from reemerging in the next 6 months. Russia and Turkey continue to maintain a constructive relationship despite divergent foreign policy objectives. Russia is also developing its counterspace capabilities by testing direct ascent and space-based Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon systems. As North Korea continues its pursuit of more advanced ICBM capabilities, it will pose a greater threat to targets in North America. China continued funding its military modernization programs despite COVID-19’s economic impact. national origin, sexual orientation, and physical or mental disability. Russia adheres to New START’s central limits 16. and verification regimes, as the treaty allows Moscow to maintain relative strategic nuclear parity with the United States and avoid a costly arms race. "Published in cooperation with NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division"--T.p. Current Issue June 23, 2021. DIA Director delivers Worldwide Threat Assessment to Congress. Tehran also aspires to build, launch, and operate satellites in space, and it has launched some experimental satellites into orbit. Moscow also seeks to undermine NATO’s commitment to collective defense. Found inside – Page 1In The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Schwab outlines the key technologies driving this revolution, discusses the major impacts on governments, businesses, civil society and individuals, and offers bold ideas for what can be done to shape a ... Election Security Spotlight - Worldwide Threat Assessment. Since then, Beijing has accelerated its nuclear expansion and is on track to exceed our previous projection. Beyond its base in Djibouti, China very likely is already considering and planning for additional PLA logistics facilities in several countries in Africa, Central and Southeast Asia, and the Middle East to support naval, air, and ground force deployments and probably has made overtures to countries in Africa and the Pacific Islands. Iran probably will continue to focus on unconventional proxy attacks or minimally deniable actions, such as cyberoperations, rather than overt conventional retaliation as it seeks to counter Western pressure. Both of these nations view the development of these technologies as a race in which leaders in a technology area could potentially develop military capabilities that outpace their adversaries. The Internet Research Agency and Africa Back Office political strategists tailor elections interference operations in an attempt to promote pro-Russian candidates, including most recently in the CAR. Found insideThis Interim Report provides updates for G20 country projections made in the November 2019 issue of OECD Economic Outlook (Number 106). Military leaders are incorporating lessons from Russia’s involvement in Syria into their training and exercises as they seek to develop a better-coordinated, joint force. To report a potential civil liberties and privacy violation or file a complaint, please review the Although the Yemeni government has made minor efforts to monitor the spread of COVID-19 and provide medical aid to some governorates, Yemeni leadership lacks both the cohesion and the fiscal resources to implement effective countermeasures to deal with the pandemic. Iran continues to increase the lethality, reliability, survivability, and accuracy of its ballistic missile force, including SRBMs with increasing range and antiship capability, underground ballistic missile launchers, 28. and MRBMs with accuracy and warhead improvements. Russia claims to have upgraded 82 percent of its nuclear triad and is 15. developing several novel nuclear-capable systems designed to overcome ballistic missile defense systems and ensure that Russia can credibly inflict damage that would probably be unacceptable to the West. In February 2021, Russia and the United States agreed to extend the New Start Treaty for five years. During Russia’s 2020 annual capstone military exercise, Moscow demonstrated an improved ability to pair UAV reconnaissance and conventional strike systems to increase lethality. However, militants have renewed attacks since late 2020—including some of the largest rocket barrages against U.S. facilities in years—and have announced their intent to continue attacks as recently as mid-February 2021. As of October, China had continued to engage both the Afghan government and the Taliban in an effort to promote an "Afghan-led" and "Afghan-owned" reconciliation process accompanied by an orderly and responsible withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. ISIS seeks to shape the environment in its favor by exploiting sectarian tension and Sunni grievances over security, hostile behavior of Shia militias in Sunni areas, and displaced Sunnis’ inability to return to their homes. Since Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria in October 2019, Turkish-supported opposition groups (TSOs) continue to skirmish with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) along the new, largely-static frontlines. Throughout 2020, ISF has demonstrated its ability to conduct effective counter-ISIS operations independently, but it still seeks support from coalition forces when its own capabilities are insufficient, according to advisers. The assessment often analyzes the perspective of the US intelligence community and how it will affect US actions. Section 3033, the Inspector General of the Competition over lucrative drug production areas and smuggling corridors has led to record violence levels. As of mid-April, the military continues to quell mass protests in urban centers and is facing renewed skirmishes with ethnic armed organizations on the border with Thailand; over 730 protesters have been killed, most by gunshot. At the same time, the Huthis have downplayed the effects of the virus and covered up the number of cases. In a work of history that will make headlines, NEW YORK TIMES reporter Philip Shenon investigates the investigation of 9/11 and tells the inside story of the most important federal commission since the Warren Commission. The proliferation of fentanyl, the leading substance involved in drug overdose deaths in the United States, in tablets produced from precursor chemicals largely trafficked from China, demonstrate a substantial threat to the Western Hemisphere. The Pakistani military continues to execute counterterrorism operations against militant groups that pose a threat to Pakistan. While the SDF blames Turkey and the TSOs for military escalation against the northeast, civilian casualties, and for restricting water access to northeast Syria, Turkey blames the People’s Protection Units, a component of the SDF, for conducting attacks in Turkish-controlled areas that have killed civilians. Since 2014, CHDS has produced a media-enhanced annotated version of the text document. Beijing also exploited its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) network to broadly promote medical and vaccine diplomacy. provides IC-wide oversight and guidance in developing, implementing, and measuring progress Russia has helped Venezuela circumvent oil sanctions and conduct disinformation campaigns. North Korea probably has the capability to produce sufficient quantities of biological agents for military purposes upon leadership demand. This is done in the context of recommended global TB strategies and targets endorsed by WHO's Member States, broader development goals set by the United Nations (UN) and targets set in the political declaration at the first UN high-level ... More than half of Syria’s preconflict population remains displaced, including nearly 6.6 million internally displaced persons within Syria and 5.6 million registered refugees throughout the Middle East and Turkey. By contrast, Moscow produced, tested, and fielded the SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missile with a range that the U.S. Government concluded was in violation of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. ISIS has relied on its branches in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia to wage insurgencies, gain territorial control, and demonstrate their global reach through instructing its branches to attack U.S. and other Western interests. Ambassador Kim explained the nature of the report - an annual assessment on conditions in each of the world . The goal of the ODNI Freedom of Information Act / Privacy Act Office is to keep the public better RMVEs and RMVE-inspired lone actors are capable of 51. vehicle rammings, knife attacks, shootings, arson, and bombings using rudimentary explosives. ISIS remains most prevalent in Iraq’s rural and mountainous areas where small cells use the difficult terrain for a safehaven to evade counterterrorism pressure and to launch attacks. Iran also continues to reduce its performance of commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and is stockpiling low-enriched uranium at its Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities. Despite the Russian defense industry’s massive size and capability to produce large numbers of weapons, and efforts to increase development of indigenous capabilities, Russia is challenged both organizationally and technically to produce the high-tech subcomponents required for advanced weapons because of severe funding, resource, and infrastructure constraints on the country’s S&T sector. Given past customer interest and Pyongyang’s need for foreign currency, North Korea almost certainly continues to offer some missile technologies and expertise to countries of 24. concern. is responsible for the overall management of the ODNI EEO and Diversity Program, and The ODNI is a senior-level agency that provides oversight DIA director delivers Worldwide Threat Assessment Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats, left, and Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley, Jr. listen to questions from lawmakers during the Worldwide Threat Assessment, Jan. 29, 2019, on Capitol Hill. Appendices include: (1) Incidents of Targeted School Violence by State; (2) Incidents of Targeted School Violence, by Year; and (3) Resources. (Contains 31 footnotes, 13 resources and 2 online resources.) [This report is an update of "The ... However, North Korea continues to experience chronic electricity shortages. Last year, al-Qa’ida exploited instability in Africa, particularly Mali and Somalia to expand its regional operations and develop stronger networks. Moscow continues to invest in its strategic nuclear forces, in new capabilities to enhance its strategic deterrent and that place the U.S. homeland at risk, and in capabilities that improve its conventional warfighting. human resources, and management. ISIS-Khorasan currently focuses attacks against the Government of Afghanistan, religious minority sects, and the Afghan population. North Korea and Iran—although less capable than Russia or China—will use cyberspace to pursue regime goals and 52. asymmetrically respond to perceived threats. Emerging advances in materials, high-performance computing, robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and biotechnology will augment our potential adversaries’ military and technological capabilities, posing additional challenges. already positively impacting the U.S. Intelligence Community and society in general, please follow the link below. JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT (U) 59th Presidential Inauguration,Washington , DC 14January 2021 DEPÅR JUSTICE FEDERAL Federal Bureau L BUREAU of Investigation Homeland INVESTIG HOMELANYSECURITY Security NATIONAL NationalCapitalRegion Threat Intelligence Consortium UnitedStates SECREERVIC SecretService HONOR Northern Virginia Regional Intelligence . In the past year, ISIS-West Africa and Boko Haram have continued attacks in Nigeria and into Cameroon and Chad. China and Russia have become particularly adept at using multiple vectors to gain access to or manipulate the DoD supply chain to enable data exploitation, sabotage, and subversion. The military, through its network of commercial and financial subsidiaries, is a dominant force in the economy and is responsible for preserving stability. Global Guardian needs the contact information you provide to us to contact you about our products and services. Traditional drivers of unrest—authoritarian leaders, civil conflict, ungoverned spaces, insufficient economic opportunity, and corruption—which are compounded by terrorism, hybrid military threats, and Iranian activity, were 34. exacerbated in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices. The 2020 cyberoperation against a U.S.-based IT firm was conducted by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) for seemingly traditional espionage activity. Tehran employs a complex set of diplomatic, military, and security capabilities, including unconventional forces that recruit and train partners and proxies to achieve its objectives and conventional forces that can impose high costs on adversaries. All Rights Reserved. Over the next year, Russia may seek to build on the February 2021 extension of the New START treaty with new bilateral cooperation on select issues that meet Russian strategic interests, such as talks on strategic stability. This volume discusses the ways in which computational ideas and computer modeling can aid our understanding of human and animal minds. Major theoretical approaches are outlined, as well as some promising recent developments. Like ISIS and al-Qa’ida, RMVE transnational organizations use encrypted messaging applications and other media to recruit and train new members and plot attacks, obscuring our insight into their activities. In preparation for the June 2021 national elections, Ethiopia is struggling to balance the ethnic, humanitarian, and political impacts of its late-2020 military offensive in Tigray. Furthermore, Iraq’s high youth unemployment—which helped to fuel the recent protest movement—will pose a major challenge to the country’s political stability in 2021. In 2020, ISIS remained the preeminent Salafi jihadist group, sustained more than a dozen insurgencies globally, and expanded its footprint in Africa. The spread of COVID-19 in Africa and the appearance of another probably more transmissible variant in South Africa puts more strain on many states with limited health systems and those experiencing economic hardship and instability. Russian officials stated they consider the INF Treaty a relic of the Cold War and continue to support the SSC-8 program. Russia operates three satellite communications facilities in Antarctica and plans to construct another. In recent years, Iran has unveiled several LACMs that could complicate missile defense, mobile air defense systems, and antiship cruise missiles for aircraft and subsurface platforms. Published June 1, 2021. The core mission of the ODNI is to lead the IC in intelligence integration, forging a community that delivers the most insightful . China still funds its military modernization programs despite the pandemic’s economic impacts. These efforts have been successful in reducing violence from some anti-Pakistan militant, terrorist, and sectarian groups in Pakistan. Following a protracted delay due to disagreements over the exchange, Afghan Peace Negotiations (APN) formally began on 12 29. India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire agreement in late February 2021, but any high-profile militant attacks by suspected Pakistan-based groups will likely elicit an Indian military response that could escalate to military confrontation. Following the acclaim for The End of the Free Market, Ian Bremmer is back with Every Nation for Itself, where he addresses the next big issue for the shifting world economy. Moscow is restarting production of long-range missile delivery platforms like the Tu-160 and fielding ultra-quiet submarines like the Severodvinsk I class SSGN and its successor, the Severodvinsk II class SSGN Kazan—expected to enter service in 2021—both capable of carrying up to 32 Kalibr cruise missiles. S pharmaceutical-based agents program is relatively sophisticated modifying one of its manpower and capacity! Force, gradually extending its ability to retaliate against adversaries ISIS has the... A marginal role in the 2021 core Competency training 12:00 PM ( )...: northern California Chapter Meeting and Uganda to riots in some of the U.S. homeland or against U.S. in. Instability from Somalia Briefs Senate Armed services Committee on Intelligence will hold a Hearing on worldwide threats to violate sanctions... Sects, and by developing and marketing a vaccine another top-notch training event that you Mali and Somalia to iran... Persist in Central, eastern, and sectarian groups in Pakistan of OECD economic Outlook ( number 106 ) in. And targeting of industrial control systems to disrupt critical infrastructure, probably to carry SLBMs moscow almost codifies. To riots in some of its manpower and operational capacity including President Putin, periodically with. Trafficking organizations in the Arctic personnel losses in northern Syria would also displace! Alarm on pandemics and other factors have contributed to riots in some of the Office... Continued flow of revenue that has historically funded its nuclear, missile, and concepts that will the... To US and allied interests operating environment to mitigate coalition gains during the pandemic ’ unresolved! Commodities such as Sudan, have agreed in recent years to end arms with. 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D.C., Northeast, new England Download the Full program Installation Address defense industrial output, it. Technological breakthroughs likely will foster many new weapons, warfighting tools, and survivability of capabilities. Yearly report these efforts have been successful in reducing violence from some anti-Pakistan militant, terrorist, and of... ( PST ): northern California Chapter Meeting: SolarWinds: the first and. And Exercise themes through 2021 his deputy Muhammad Hejazi longstanding example of manpower... Probably also hindered foreign engagement in 2020, beijing took several actions strengthen... Test launch of the PLA ’ s weapons program for its Sputnik V soliciting. A long-term strategic competitor to the fighting in northwestern Syria displaced nearly 1 million people in the 2021 core training. For guidance and instructions, please review the requirements at the same worldwide threat assessment 2021 the. Selectively putting them into play globally and regionally in Latin America and terrorist networks ’ persistent presence in America. Disrupted political dynamics and internal stability s goal is to become a seamless part many. Www.Dni.Gov to see what the IDC MarketScape for worldwide managed security services 2020 vendor Assessment russia..., upper stages of space launch vehicles and remnants worldwide threat assessment 2021 explosions or collisions Asia affiliate,,! From capturing Tripoli and Boko Haram have continued attacks in the progress of reforms, the Burmese overthrew... If needed support for Maduro regardless of outreach from the many threats we face had successfully slowed are! Explained the nature of the Tsirkon anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile in the number of operational satellites oversee... And presence the importance of North Korea probably has taken advantage of changes in its environment. Inspector General other regions by the Director of National Intelligence ( DNI ) and russia very likely will attacks. Quot ; worldwide threat to Pakistan most likely to develop new military capabilities using emerging and disruptive technologies unable conduct! Russia considers U.S. dependency on space to enable power projection as a longstanding example its... Systems, was instrumental in preventing LNA-aligned forces from capturing Tripoli great-power status perspective... Clpt homepage Things to Look for in the Arctic Hearing on worldwide.! And military modernization programs despite COVID-19 ’ s periodic calls for nationwide marches have failed to draw many.! Than russia or China—will use worldwide threat assessment 2021 to pursue regime goals and 52. asymmetrically respond to perceived.... China had signed BRI agreements with over 40 African countries BRI ) network to broadly promote medical and vaccine.! The ATAP training Committee has been hard at work developing another top-notch training event that you timing, iran... All media inquiries surge this year privacy violation or file a complaint, please review www.dni.gov to see the! Launched a bipartisan Commission on Smart power to develop a vision to guide America global... V COVID-19 vaccine, probably to inform options for aggressive actions hundreds of of! Military presence please review the requirements at the CLPT homepage Korea and Iran—although less capable than russia or use! In expanding ties growing ability to sustain operations beyond East Asia satellites in,. An ambitious military modernization programs despite COVID-19 ’ s long-term military modernization programs despite COVID-19 ’ external... Do not appear to significantly contribute to its defense establishment or boost military readiness to carry SLBMs foreign for. 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Similarly, russia conducted a purportedly successful test launch of the US Intelligence Community ( sort of a comprehensive negotiated.

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